KYRGYZSTAN 1996: HEADED IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION, NOT YET ARRIVED

(Executive Summary)

This report is based on the results of the 1996 survey of public opinion in Kyrgyzstan commissioned by the International Foundation for Election Systems (IFES) and conducted by RCIOM-INFOREX of Bishkek. Interviewing was conducted November 30 - December 12, 1996 with 1494 adults, 18+, representative of the national population. The margin of sampling error for a sample of this size is ± 2.5% (95% confidence level).

Summary

The overall portrait of opinions which emerges from this 1996 IFES survey in Kyrgyzstan suggests a people increasingly confident in the course of reform being pursued by the national leadership. Implicit in this assessment is that a majority of Kyrgyzstanis have a sense of where their country is headed. Economic hardships continue, and a majority remain dissatisfied with the current situation in their country, but overall satisfaction has increased since 1995, as has the public’s appraisal of a number of aspects of Kyrgyz society.

Forging Ahead

Half of Kyrgyzstanis feel their country is pursuing the correct course: 50 percent think Kyrgyzstan is headed in the right direction versus 35 percent who believe it is on the wrong track. And although a majority of people still say they are dissatisfied with the country’s situation overall, more people claim they are satisfied this year than in 1995 (27% vs. 21%).

A majority of Kyrgyzstanis view their country as a Democracy, as they did the year before. Sixty percent of those asked say that Kyrgyzstan is a democracy, up 4 percent. On the other hand, 34 percent of respondents say that Russia is more democratic than Kyrgyzstan, an increase of 10 percentage points over 1995. Only 1 in 5 (20%) said Kyrgyzstan is more democratic – roughly the same as in 1995 (22%). Of the eight questions on various aspects of Kyrgyz society which constitutes the IFES socio-political barometer, satisfaction has either increased or stayed the same on all eight.

Economic Anxieties

However, this positive attitude does not appear consistently, especially with regard to economic matters. When asked about the economic situation overall, only 23 percent describe it as good (73% describe it is bad). As for the future, 36 percent (as opposed to 26% in 1995) think the economic situation in 6 months will be the same as it is now, while the same number as in 1995 believe it will get better (23% vs. 25%).

Another indication of concern for their economic future is the fact that more Kyrgyzstanis believe that young people will have a worse quality of life than their parents (43% think it will be worse vs. 33% who believe it will be better). There has been a 9 percent increase since 1995 in the percentage of respondents saying that the quality of life since independence has worsened (78% vs. 69%).

On a more immediate level, most say that it is very hard for their family to buy enough food each month (79%, a 5% increase over last year).

Ethnic Relations

There is good news concerning ethnic relations. Eighty-three percent of those surveyed report relations between ethnic groups as being either "very good" or "good" while only 4 percent expect that ethnic relations will change for the worse in the next 3-5 years.

Law and Order

There is increasing optimism about the condition of law and order in Kyrgyzstan. In 1995, 23 percent of those surveyed believed that the condition of law and order would improve over the next year. Thirty percent now say that it will improve. Conversely, however, many (86%) say that the problem of official corruption is a "serious" problem. This is up from 78 percent from the year before.

The Electoral System

A majority (57%) are dissatisfied with the performance of the electoral system, and 38% say the electoral system needs reform, versus 38% who say it does not. 55 percent report that they do not know the name of their representative in the Jorgoku Kenesh. Interestingly, 55 percent of ethnic Kyrgyz say they can name their Deputy versus only 22 percent of ethnic Russians. This is supported by the fact a majority (53%) say they do not have very much information about political developments underway in Kyrgyzstan. In 1995, 50 percent reported having sufficient information and only one-third (33%) described their information as "somewhat insufficient." Meanwhile, those who say their Deputy represents their views "well" has dropped from 25 percent (1995) to 18 percent (1996).

There seems to be a positive trend concerning party politics in Kyrgyzstan – 47 percent say that the ideal number of political parties is two or more, compared to only 32 percent in 1995. Fifty-eight percent of those surveyed believe that it is important to have at least two political parties contesting a election. It should be no surprise that these increases have resulted in more Kyrgyzstanis saying that they would be more likely to support a candidate who was affiliated with a political party (29% this year vs. 24% last year). This 5 percent increase accompanied a similar decline in those who say they are more likely to support an unaffiliated candidate (54% vs. 60%).

Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs)

A significant finding in the 1996 survey is that, unlike in 1995, a bare majority (54% vs. 46%) believe that citizens have the possibility to form groups without governmental participation (Non-Governmental Organizations) and 42 percent report that they would volunteer to work for an NGO without any pay. In fact, 52 percent say that NGOs are essential or necessary.

Which NGOs are most popular? Somewhat surprisingly, given the current economic conditions, more than two-thirds (67%) of those surveyed said they would consider joining a charitable organization (defined as "an organization which helps people who are in need"). Close behind for consideration are "environmental organizations" which 59 percent would consider supporting. Finally, only one-third (33%) know of any NGOs currently functioning in their communities, which makes these questions on NGOs problematic: NGOs remain for most Kyrgyzstanis a hypothetical concept.

Ethnicity

No other demographic variable so significantly influences responses as does ethnicity. A few of the disparate attitudes and perceptions between ethnic Kyrgyz and ethnic Russians:

• While 57 percent of Kyrgyz say that the country is heading in the right direction, only 35 percent of Russians believe so
• A majority of Russians (54%) say that the quality of life for their children will be worse while only 38 percent of ethnic Kyrgyz think their children will have a lower quality of life
• Russians are more likely to feel alienated in the sense that they cannot have an effect on the direction of their country. Only 39 percent of ethnic Russians think that voting influences decisions of the government, versus 58 percent of Kyrgyz. In a finding that is counter-intuitive to this assessment, however, more Russians are satisfied with the electoral process than Kyrgyz (40% to 34%).
• In the most pronounced ethnic-based percentage gap, 81 percent of Kyrgyz say that Kyrgyzstan’s Declaration of Independence from Russia was a "good thing." Only 46 percent of Russians concur.

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